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September 1971
World Dynamics and PsychodynamicsA step towards making abstract "world system" dynamic limitations meaningful to the individual- / - Distributed by the Union of International Associations and Mankind 2000 as Study Paper ORG/2 Introduction IntroductionAny academic study of the world system is based on a treatment of individuals as units whose actions can be aggregated to constitute the general processes which are examined within the world system model used. The conclusions of such studies result in recommendations for political actions which are either meaningless for individuals or, if understood, are viewed with suspicion, low credibility or, at best, as interesting hypotheses "worthy of further study". They do not incite commitment or a change in behaviour at a grass-roots level - thus leaving politicians free to support current trends without modification. With regard to The Club of Rome study published as "World Dynamics" (Jay Forrester, World Dynamics. Cambridge, Wright-Allen Press, 1971 (see review in "International Associations", October 1971)), it would seem valuable to attempt to render its approach (and conclusions given as Annex I) more meaningful. To this end, we can consider in more detail the individual's end of the actions which are aggregated into world processes tracked by the model. And, instead of looking at his physical actions, we can attempt to use the system dynamics approach to concretize the person's own psychological processes which give rise to the physical actions which are aggregated. For unless the interactions between these psychological processes and their consequences are understood by the individual responsible for them, we should not expect the individual, or even ourselves, to accept any arguments in favour of modifying the consequences of such processes in terms of physical behaviour. In other words, we cannot expect rational consideration of arguments for immediate self-restraint and self-privation made on the basis of highly abstract analyses of long-term future probabilities, however objective to the investigator. At first sight, individual psychological considerations may seem to have little connection with a computer analysis of the world system. But Jay Forrester, author of "World Dynamics", himself establishes the link:
These points do not offer an explicit clue to the method to be adopted to render "world systems" meaningful to the individual. The argument is however the same that Forrester must have used in converting his approach from corporations and industries, to urban systems to the world system. (The city to world switch appears to have been made between June 29th when it was proposed in Bern and July 20th, 1970, when it was demonstrated in Cambridge, USA.) The assumption is that at every level we are dealing with systems:
This is a seemingly dramatic and unwarranted assumption since it implies that there are elements and relationships common to both the world system and to the psychological system of a person. But in both cases, as pointed out above, we are dealing with a system, and in both cases the emphasis is more on processes, flows and relationships than on the precise definition of what it is that is flowing. In fact, we can avoid the issue by assuming in both cases that some form of energy is flowing without needing to detail the kind. The five levels chosen by Forrester as cornerstones on which to build the world system structure were: population, capital investment, natural resources, fraction of capital devoted to agriculture, pollution. As a first step in the experiment, these must be "translated" into equivalent levels in an individual's "psychic system". This is done in Annex II. The diagram used by Forrester to illustrate the connection between levels (rectangles) and rates of flow (circles) is reproduced as Annex III. In Annex IV, the terms used in Annex III have been "translated" to give concepts which are more meaningful in the psychic system context. Concluding commentsThe procedure is the reverse of that usually existing between models of personality and world system models. The latter have often been criticized as being a mere projection of the former. Under the circumstances, the "translations" seem to suggest possible interesting relationships for further exploration. As required, the psychological eco-system seems to appear sufficiently constrained so that the limitations on any one form of action become apparent. This increases understanding of the probable limits at the world level. It remains to be seen whether an individual aware of this model could see more clearly the manner in which each of his actions contributes to new situations at the world level (e.g. the purchase of a new consumer product of marginal utility, the dumping of picnic left-overs, acquisition of new information of doubtful utility). The approach certainly seems to give the individual a well articulated (and sufficiently subtle) framework on which to "hang" concepts which are usually too subjective to be made explicit. An important point is that concern with "world" dynamics only arises because of a recognition of constraints on "world" development. A critical developmental stage must be reached before these become apparent. The value of the model, and even its acceptance by the Individual, may depend on his being at this critical stage (e.g. of Information overload, anxiety, etc.) The detailed equivalence of the two systems would be almost impossible to establish because of the difficulty of obtaining data on the levels and rates of flow. But the is some hope of quantification in that Forrester also lacked much data and depended upon the judgements of experts as to the rates of flow under different conditions and the plausibility of the interactions when tested. It is, of course, too much to expect any relevance to individuals in general of a "translated" version of the "World Dynamics" conclusions (given in Annex I). The model in the case of the individual can only be supposed to give the dynamics of the system not a description of a particular state or trends. In given individuals, such drastic conclusions would not be warranted. But it is possible that such "translated" conclusions would be applicable to many of the Individuals today who are most active and successful in executive, policy and decision-making roles. It is they who are in many ways the motor of society and it is their actions and values which contribute most directly to the maintenance of the priorities which lead to the crises predicted by the Club of Rome study. ANNEX I: Preliminary Conclusions of the Club of Rome Study of World DynamicsPoints 1 to 8 below were grouped as such in World Dynamics (pages 11-13) and no modification has been made to the text. The action conclusions of Point 9 were elaborated in a different part of the book (pages 112-122). The wording of that point was adapted for this paper. 1. Increasing industrialization may be a more fundamental disturbing force in world ecology than is the world population increase. In fact, the population explosion is perhaps best viewed as being a result of technology and industrialization. (Medicine and public health are included here as a part of industrialization.) 2. Within the next century, man may face choices from a four-pronged dilemma:
3. We may now be living in a "golden age" when, in spite of a widely acknowledged feeling of malaise, the quality of life is, on the average, higher than ever before in history and higher now than the future offers. 4. Exhortations and programs directed at population control maybe inherently self-defeating. If population control begins to result, as hoped, in higher per capita food supply, and material standard of living, these very improvements may relax the pressures and generate forces to trigger a resurgence of population growth. 5. The high standard of living of modern industrial societies seems to result from a production of food and material goods that has been able to outrun the rising population. But, as agriculture reaches a space limit, as industrialization reaches a natural-resource limit, population tends to catch up. Population then grows until the "quality" of life falls far enough to stabilize population. 6. There may be no hope of the present underdeveloped countries reaching the standard of living demonstrated by the present industrial nations. In fact, the present disparity between the developed and underdeveloped nations may be equalized as much by a decline in the developed countries as by an improvement in the underdeveloped countries. 7. A society with a high level of industrialization may be nonsustainable. It may be self-extinguishing if it exhausts the natural resources on which it depends. Or, if unending substitution for declining natural resources were possible, a new international strife over pollution and environmental rights might pull the average world-wide standard of living back to the level of a century ago. 8. From the long view of a hundred years hence, the present efforts of underdeveloped countries to industrialize, may be unwise. They may now be closer to an ultimate equilibrium with the environment than are the industrial nations. The present underdeveloped countries may be in a better condition for surviving forthcoming world-wide environmental and economic pressures than are the advanced countries. If one of the several forces strong enough to cause a collapse in world population does arise, the underdeveloped countries might suffer far less than their share of the decline because economics with less organization, integration, and specialization are probably less vulnerable to disruption. 9. With a view to action towards a global equilibrium solution, the study concludes that we are at the point where higher pressures on growth in the present are necessary if insurmountable pressures are to be avoided in the future. In order to maintain the quality of life (defined here as a combination of material standard of living, degree of crowding, available food, and level of pollution) at the current level, the following changes must be made immediately:
which have the effect of maintaining the population at the 1970 level. ANNEX II: Levels in psychological systems corresponding to selected world system levels1. Natural Resources (a) Each person may be conceived as having certain psychosocial reserves acquired during the period of growth in childhood and early adolescence. These reserves may be partly described as energy or conventionally termed "talent", "strength of character" or "background". It is assumed that these reserves are primarily built up prior to adult life although after this period they are regenerated at a certain rate and may be "husbanded" and "cultivated" with varying degrees of success. (b) During adult life these reserves may be drawn upon rather like intellectual and emotional "capital" . They may be used up at a rate greater or less than the rate of natural regeneration. If the rate at which they are used is greater than the rate of regeneration, a time must come when the person has no "Inner" reserves left. The person becomes intellectually and emotionally "bankrupt" - "a shell of his former self". He is unable to contribute further energy to the social process. 2. Population (a) Each person may be conceived as possessing a certain population of ideas, facts, concepts, items of information, hopes, beliefs and such like. This population is in no way static. The interactions between the members of the population constitutes a person's"inner life". Needless to say many of these interactions produce new members of the population. This constitutes creativity in a very broad sense. But this increase is partially counter-balanced as certain Items of information, beliefs, etc. fall into disuse, are forgotten and cease to participate as active members of the population. (b) The population may be assumed to be contained by the person within a certain psychic space. As the population Increases new territory within this space may be opened up by the person - but for each person there may be assumed to be only a certain limited amount of psychic space available. Once this limit is reached, the population increase occurs within a fixed space. This results in a progressive "crowding" of ideas and information. This phenomena of "crowding" of information is familiar to many as "information overload", and to others, faced with neurotic depression, the point at which "everything becomes too much" and "one can no longer cope with the demands made upon oneself by one's milieu" - namely a point of intellectual or emotional overload. Information crowding or overload therefore constitutes, for a given person, a natural limit to the increase in the amount of information which he can contain within his psychic space. 3. Capital Investment (a) Each person may be conceived as being in a position to allocate a certain fraction of his time and energy to the build up of his intellectual structures and behavioural patterns as a form of long-term investment. Such intellectual or emotional investment or "commitment" beyond the needs of the moment is made in order to reduce the amount of personal energy which will be required to perform the same activities at some time in the future. These structures and behaviour patterns are consciously constructed so that a person can master and order the use of his time and energy to increase the amount of free time and energy available to him at some later date. (b) There does not appear to be any recognized limit to this form of investment. (One possible limit arises from the manner in which certain ideas, hopes a beliefs of the person must be "disciplined" in order to achieve a satisfactory ordering of the person's time and energy. This disciplining may amount to a form of repression of certain members of a person's concept population. This pressure may build up resistance and lead to isolation of particular belief complexes (resulting in schizophrenia), a form of credibility gap, and an awareness of lack of personal integration due to the lack of participation or representation in the manner in which the investment of personal time and energy is decided.) 4. Capital Investment in agriculture fraction (a) Each person may be conceived as being dependent upon a certain intellectual and emotional replenishment. It is recognized that for psychic balance and growth, periods of "recreation" and self-renewal, and freely chosen, personally meaningful, fulfilling activity are required. This may be thought of as providing "nourishment" to the members of each person's psychic population - without adequate nourishment, the more fragile ideas, concepts and beliefs fall into decay. This nourishment may be thought of as being a product of certain regenerative processes in certain suitable domains of each person's psychic space The regenerative process may or may not be efficient, and the space available to nourish all the different members of a person's concept population may not be adequate. Once the population builds up, it is no longer sufficient to depend upon natural re-creative processes to ensure adequate psychic nourishment. A deliberate conscious effort must be made to guarantee that these replenishing processes are efficient and sufficient. To achieve this, a certain fraction of the person's time and energy must be invested in improving these processes. This limits the investment in the long-term processes mentioned in the previous section. (b) As the number of concepts and facts making up a person's psychic population increases, the available psychic space to contain them and to nourish them is reduced. If the efficiency of the person's regenerative processes does not Increase, a natural limit is imposed on the amount of nourishment available If the population demands increase beyond this limit, the available nourishment (per concept) will decrease. This will limit creativity and any further growth in the population. 5. Pollution (a) Each person may be conceived as made up of many psychosocial processes in which members of his psychic population participate. Each process consumes energy and results in the creation of products which may either be needed for later processes, or have to be broken down by later processes into waste products to be absorbed. As an example, most intellectual and emotional activities leave anything from a longer to a minute residue of what is usually termed "unpleasantness", "tension", "disagreeability", "dissatisfaction", "confusion", "suspicion", "envy", "anxiety", etc. These are natural waste products of the processes inherent in the activities. These waste products are absorbed at a certain rate, so that after a certain time, the same activities may be repeated without being affected by any progressive accumulation of waste products. At a given time therefore for a given person, a certain level of waste products is in circulation in process of absorption. (b) Under certain conditions, the level of the waste products in a person's psychosocial processes may start to Increase in certain domains. In other words, at a certain stage , the intellectual and emotional processes which absorb waste products may be overloaded. They may no longer be able to perform their function adequately. Such a situation could arise if a person was highly active but paid little attention to the long-term consequences of his actions to himself - particularly if this gave rise to a build up of tension, anxiety or other emotional or intellectual difficulties. This situation in which waste products start to accumulate, leads to a form of "psychic pollution". As the pollution level increases, the natural regenerative processes are affected and the person cannot recover his original "freshness" . The Increase in the level of pollution renders the nourishment of the psychic population increasingly difficult and severely reduces creativity. ANNEX III: Complete world model described in World Dynamics"World 2": This is a complete diagram of the world model described in Jay Forrester's World Dynamics. The model interrelates the five level variables population, natural resources, capital investment, capital-investment-in-agriculture fraction, and pollution. . World 2 antedated the World 3 model described by Dennis Meadows
ANNEX IV: Terms in psychological systems corresponding to those used in the model of the world system
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