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June 1972
World Problems and Human Development- / -An earlier version of this document (without Part II) was distributed by the Union of International Associations (as UAI Study Paper PROB/1R in February 1972) under the title World Problems and Human Potential: out line proposal for a data collection project on "world problems". This version, modified to include Part II: Human Development, was distributed jointly by Mankind 2000 and the Union of International Associations (Study Paper PROB/3). The Summary was however omitted from the June 1972 version. The project commenced in July 1972. SUMMARY The proposed project would collect from the literature minimum adequate descriptive data and source references on, possibly, 1,500 - 5,000 "world problems" and their interrelationships. The purpose of the project is to counteract the tendency to design programs to handle isolated problems or sets of problems, due to a simplistic conception of the extent to which problems are interrelated. In particular, the project would hope to highlight the many cross-links from the sub-sets of "natural environment" and "development" problems to psycho-social problems, which currently prevent real progress towards the solution of the more visible problems. It is the largely ignored, behavioural and systemic problems which divert, cushion or even counteract the Impact of organized attacks on those of apparently more dramatic concern. A comprehensive mapping of the problem network would help bodies to focus and coordinate their resources more effectively - particularly with a view to locating and concentrating on those key problems requiring relatively few resources, but whose solution results directly in the elimination of many other dependent, and possibly more visible, problems.
PART I: WORLD PROBLEMSIntroductionPreliminary investigations show that, surprisingly enough, there in no systematic descriptive listing of "world problems" nor any systematic attempt to show their interrelationship or how they are nested within one another - even in the case of the subset constituted by human environment problems. This impedes progress towards formulation of widely acceptable strategies capable of attracting adequate resources to attack complex networks of problems. It also confuses research priorities and obscures critical leverage points in the network at which research and action may be most beneficial with a minimum of resources. There is a tendency for information systems, organizations and programs to get "locked into" recognition of one particular pattern or mode of problems only, and to "over-identify" with them. (Donald Schon. Beyond the Stable State: public and private learning in a changing society. London, Temple Smith, 1971) This results in a multiplicity of candidates for "the key problem" requiring maximum allocation of resources, of which each appeals to constituencies having often little basis or desire for inter-communication. Examples are: refugees, economic development, environment, peace, youth, urban renewal, drug addiction, etc. It is dangerous to define problems in isolation from one another (Harold Lasswell. From fragmentation to configuration. Policy Sciences, 2, 1971, p. 439-446.). Each constituency attempts to create the general impression that its program is covering all the relevant issues. Thus it is only in the footnotes to reports that one finds, for example, that the U.N. Conference on Human Environment (Stockholm 1972) will not concern itself with the population problem (which is a major contributor to destruction of the environment) because it is "too sensitive", nor with psycho-social features of the human environment because they are "too subjective". The same phenomenon repeats itself with respect to other Issue areas. The sub- and associated problems in each such case may, of course, be found described to the relevant literature, but no effort has ever been made to bring them all together in any systematic manner and to record their interrelationships. Perhaps the most sophisticated attempt at interrelating world problems is that of The Club of Rome sponsored study at M.I.T. under Jay Forrester and Dennis Meadows (Jay Forrester. World Dynamics. Cambridge, Wright-Alien, 1971.) - but even this was forced to focus on a very small sub-set of the recognized universe of problems, partly because the universe is not systematically documented. Of particular importance are the non-obvious problems, and those which are obvious in one culture or frame of reference but are not in another - or those which constitute the negative consequences of positive programs. The proposed project would collect from the literature minimum adequate descriptive data and source references on, possibly, 1,500 - 5,000 world problems and their interrelationships. The data collected in the project would later be used in four ways
Background of ProjectThis project originated as a result of investigations into the collection and handling of data on International organizations and on concept thesauri (see Annex A). In dealing with systems of organizations and concepts, there is a considerable problem of data collection - particularly when it Is desired to show interrelationships. In the case of organizations, most interesting information is confidential and organizations do not want to be directly exposed to the suggestion that they should or should not be linked in particular ways. In the case of concepts, each discipline tends to favour a different pattern of concepts, so that it is liable to be difficult to make rapid progress in concept classification or in suggesting new patterns of linkages - particularly of the needed inter-displinary kind. The system of organizations Is strongly influenced by the system of concepts - integrative progress in one catalyzes integration in the other. These systems are however also influenced in a similar way by the system of problems ( See argument In: Anthony Judge, Computer-aided visualization of psycho-social structures; peace as an evolving balance of conceptual or organizational relationships. (Paper presented to an AAAS Symposium on Value and Knowledge Requirements for Peace, Philadelphia, December 1971). In this light, it should be possible to obtain a more effective integration of the organizations and conceptual systems by showing in one context the linkages within the network of problems with some parts of which each organization and discipline is in some way concerned. The advantage is that the collection of data on problems and their interrelationships is much less sensitive and threatening. For this reason, it is also viable Nature of ProjectThe data collection strategy is envisaged as follows: Phase 1 1.1. Scan through a limited number of journals which attempt to give an overview of progress and problems in many disciplines and to omment on current issues (e.g. Science, New Scientist/ Economist, etc.). 1.2. Reference books on standard groups of problems (e.g. environment, urban renewal, etc.) will also be consulted. 1.3. Official reports of the United Nations and its Specialized Agencies will be consulted as they are one logical point at which the existence of many unnoticed problems should be registered and documented. 1.4. Some bibliographies, accessions lists and union catalogues can also be used effectively in a preliminary search. Phase 2 The approach above should permit files of cuttings to be established for a wide range of problems together with references to authoritative sources. A subject index would be maintained. 2.1. it is expected that Phase 1 will already generate sufficient data to describe a proportion of the problems adequately. 2.2. More specialized literature sources located in Phase 1 will be followed up to extract details on problems. Official reports of some governments will be consulted since many of these are problem oriented. 2.3. Some specialized libraries, information centers and organizations will be visited or questioned by mall. Phase 3 3.1. Completion of most problem entries. 3.2. Difficult entries would be compiled and sent to specialists for comment and amendments.
The data would now be in a form to permit computer coding or use as manuscript for a preliminary edition of the Yearbook of World Problems. Phase 4 (external to this proposal) 4.1 Each problem entry would be sent to the most appropriate specialist(s) for verification and amendment. It is expected that the 4000 international organizations will be extremely useful at this stage. 4.2 Extra categories of Information on problems will be added whenever opportunity permits. A more ambitious strategy would commission or attempt to obtain the collaboration of experts to prepare reviews of each world problem touching their domains. This is considered impracticable in terms of cost and time - and possibly undesirable in that it would be difficult to prevent each expert from stressing the perspective of his own particular school of thought. It would be preferable to approach experts of different schools of thought with a finished text for critical comment. In fact,it is at this stage, once the preliminary edition is in existence, that a multidisciplinary editorial committee can be set up to oversee the problems of criteria and quality of entry. Practicality of ProjectThe style of work outlined is regularly used at the Union of International Associations to prepare manuscripts for reference books on international organizations (including organization descriptions, bibliographies, and other directories). A major advantage of this particular setting is its reputation for commitment to documentation without overemphasis on a particular national, political, disciplinary, or program perspective. Types of ProblemDespite frequent use of the word "problem", there seems to be a certain confusion as to what is meant. Bertil Nordbeck notes in an investigation of uses of the term that it is used conventionally in somewhat different senses from person to person and from situation to situation - and that this also seems to be true of the formal definitions of the concept Bertil Nordbeck. . From the elements of 16 extant definitions, he concludes that "A problem or a problem situation exists when one experiences a need or a demand to achieve - through some kind of activity or search - from a certain existing situation to another imagined situation, a goal situation, which cannot be attained either immediately or by any automatic, habitual activity." ( Problem: What is a problem? International Associations,1971, 7, 405-408.) It is possible to argue from this that it is goals that should be registered (Cf. Gerald Feinberg. The Prometheus Project; mankind's for long-range goals. Doubleday, 1969.) and not problems. But by definition, goals are much more difficult to define. They are often not explicit - in fact their presence can often only be deduced from the problems which emerge and are noted as people succeed in giving precision to the goal and the difficulties of achieving it are recognized. Those seeking common values and goals assume too much in accepting the promise of general agreement on the flaws in the human condition. Most of the flaws are unknown to the majority and many, even when known, are not perceived as flaws - people adapt to them. Even those which are known to the majority do not necessarily give rise to an effective political will to change. Peoples' values compete and the corresponding problems compete for resource. "One man's meat is another man's poison." From a practical point of view,it is the problems on which data is available. The presence of goals is less easily handled. Furthermore, a well-defined problem may in fact be a common obstruction to achievement of many different goals representing the Ill-defined objectives of a variety of groups in society. Again the problem is less ambiguous to handle. One preliminary breakdown of problems gives the following types:
In attempting to isolate "world problems", the main emphasis would be placed on problem types through 6 in the list above. Problems of type 7 through 12 would only be mentioned In special cases of very general significance and then only very briefly. The cut-off point is established at type 7 because the nature of the orientation toward the social system changes significantly from that point on. "in -house research problems are different from social systemic problems. This is perhaps best illustrated by the following extract from T.S. Kuhn (*) "Bringing the normal research problem to a conclusion is achieving the anticipated in a new way, and It requires the solution of all sorts of complex instrumental, conceptual, and mathematical puzzles.... It is no criterion of goodness in a puzzle that its outcome be interesting or important. On the contrary, the really pressing problems, e.g. a cure for cancer or the design of a lasting peace, are often not puzzles at all, largely because they may not have any solution....one of the things a scientific community acquires with a paradigm is a criteria for choosing problems that, while the paradigm is taken for granted, can be assumed to have solutions. To a great extent_these_ are the only problems that the community will admit as scientific or encourage its members to undertake. Other problems,including many that had previously been standard, are rejected as metaphysical, as the concern of another discipline, or sometimes as just too problematic to be worth the time. A paradigm can, for that matter, even insulate the community from those socially important problems that are not reducible to the puzzle form, because they cannot be stated in terms of the conceptual and Instrumental look the paradigm supplies....One of the reasons why normal science seems to progress so rapidly is that Its practitioners concentrate on problems that only their own lack of Ingenuity should keep them from solving." (T.S. Kuhn. The Structure of Scientific Revolution, Chicago U.P., 1962, p. 36-37; emphasis added) Gunnar Boalt has in fact distinguished different kinds of research using the following degrees of relationship between problems and theory (The Sociology of Research. Carbondale, S. Illinois U.P. 1969.):
The "world problems" on which a focus is needed come under the first two kinds. One useful classification of world problems and crises by estimated time and intensity has been produced by John R. Platt ( John R. Platt. What we must do. Science, 166, 28 November 1969 p. 1115-1121.). This is only intended to show the most visible problems and does not show their interrelationships. It does not, for example, bring out the web of sub-problems which contribute to the visible problems. Clearly, there are other dimensions along which world problems can be distinguished. Two other dimensions of Interest are examined in Annex B. Problem CriteriaIn order to build up as comprehensive a data base as possible, the criteria for problem selection would be kept to a minimum. The emphasis would not be on the determination of whether adequate proof existed demonstrating that a problem was a valid and significant one according to some absolute standard. The effort would be to include those "problems" which well-established constituencies indicated as significant in terms of their own frame of reference - even when the validity and existence of the problem is challenged by the perspective from some other frame of reference. In effect, all problems are sought which pose a threat to the continued well-being of some international group (as defined by that group or its self-elected supporters). The object is to register all the problems perceived as real whether or not - as Stafford Beer notes (Managing modern complexity. In: The Management of Information and Knowledge.. Committee on Science and Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives, 1970, p. 41-62) - most of the problems with which society believes it is faced, are bogus problems generated by theories about social progress and the way society works. The existence of information questioning the validity of a perceived problem is to be treated as information about that problem. Each perceived problem is envisaged as having a certain probability of existence for some group in society and is therefore treated like a proposition carrying annotations commenting on its validity - but it is included. Even with the limitation mentioned in the previous section, great care must be taken to avoid being swamped by
A first attempt at a more elaborate set of criteria is set out in Annex C. Needless to say, it is only hands-on experience in collecting references to problems which will determine whether these criteria are adequate or whether they need to be made more stringent. The assumption would be made that most problems of interest would have been noted in the literature. When an author states that "the fundamental problem is X", X would be treated as potential candidate, provided it conformed to the criteria set out above. Of major interest to this project are the interstitial, behavioural, elusive or "creepy" problems which are less visible than the standard social and environmental problems, but nevertheless directly hinder action towards the solution of the latter. Number of World ProblemsAn empirically determined set of world system-wide problems has already been proposed by Hasan Ozbekhan (Toward a general theory of planning. In: Erich Jantsch (Ed.). Perspectives of Planning. Paris, OECD, 1969, p. 45-155.). He is the only author located who focuses on a comprehensive range of problems as problems and not in terms of the priorities of a particular mission-oriented agency. He arrives at a list of 24 problems (which he considers incomplete). Elsewhere (in internal reports of the Club of Rome which appears to be evolving a program remarkable for its lack of problem, discipline or institutional bias) he extends this to some 50 problems. His criteria are that they should each be, firstly, world system-wide in nature or better that they should represent cases in the pathology of current reality when the latter is viewed as a system. Secondly, he requires that they be both "continuous" and "critical", meaning that none of them can be truly solved independently of the rest of the entire set. The question is whether this list represents adequate coverage in terms of a comprehensive world problem repertory. The problems in his list are mainly types 1 through 3 with only a few psycho-social problems as understood here. Aside from this, the thrust here is to get at problems at a lower level of detail at which the "continuity" may be less evident. This is considered essential in order to Isolate the specific problems to which organizations and programs are specifically addressed or which they encounter in tackling the more general problems in Ozbekhan's list. Needless to say it is not the purpose of this project to repeat the work of the many people producing "doomsday books". All of these focus at an even higher level of aggregation than Ozbekhan and tend to end up with something like one chapter per world problem in a ten chapter book which focuses on a particular group of world problems, creating the impression that those groups non-included are less critical. Preliminary investigation has already shown that it is quite easy to build up to two hundred problems without taking into account the many aspects of conventional world problems such as environmental pollution. For this reason a first "guesstimate" of the total number of problems which would be isolated by this approach is something in the range of 1,500 to 5,000. Examples of World ProblemsA selection of examples is given in Annex D. Data to be included on each problemIt is clearly not feasible to provide a detailed review of each problem when whole books have been written on some of them. The intention is to supply a succinct statement defining the problem, its history, development, significance (plus denials of its significance), solutions, etc. Short statistical summaries of the problem would be presented in tabular form whenever available. The headings under which this information would appear in a complete entry are given in Annex E. it might be useful to treat each heading as in the Human Area Resource File. There each possible heading has a code number which facilitates filing and computer coding. There is a strong case for remaining flexible in the manner of handling the data on Individual problems. In particular,it may be convenient to group whole series of detail problems into one entry as in the case of Individual diseases, and handle the class only. (Diseases, for example, would only be handled Individually when they were considered to be uncontrollable, particularly when likely to give rise to epidemics.) It may also be useful to work with both adequately documented complete entries, and Inadequately documented (candidate) short entries. If Information could not be obtained under a particular heading, it would not be Included. Each entry might therefore include from 3 (a minimum) to many headings. Relationships between ProblemsIt Is now a matter of convention to refer to the complex interrelationships between problems and the network of problems. The OECD Bellagio Declaration on Planning , for example, noted that "Many of the serious conflicts facing mankind result from the interaction of social, economic, technological, political, and psychological forces and can no longer be solved by fractional approaches from individual disciplines... Scientific attack on these problems of complexity is a matter of the utmost urgency..." (op.cit., p. 7-9.) The whole point of the world dynamics study is that the Implications of different problems, together with programs to solve them, must be juxtaposed within a common framework to determine what the dynamic interactive effect will do to the system as a whole (Jay Forrester. World Dynamics. Cambridge, Wright-Alien Press, 1971). "A major deficiency in objective/goal statements today continues to be the lack of identification of objectives relating to spillover and second-order effects. The emphasis on objective/goal statements still seems too restricted to the immediate, more obvious, intended purposes of the program. " (H.P. Hatry. Status of PPBS in local and state governments in the United States. Policy Sciences, 2, 1971, p. 177-189.) Despite this recognition, however, the general tendency is to treat the "network" concept as a metaphor and to avoid an empirical relational by-relationship collection of information concerning the manner in which individual problems are linked together into the larger complexes. It is this empirical approach which is advocated here. One difficulty in establishing hidden relationships is the probability of a general expectation that those variables in the environment which are related to each other should be those variables which are related to one's own behaviour. (W.R. Garner. Uncertainty and Structure as Psychological Concepts. Wiley, 1962, p. 340) A major stumbling block is the confusion concerning types of relationship. No widely accepted relationship categories have been developed. It is not the intention of this project to set up a single rigid classification of permissable relationships between problems. Just as no effort was made to limit narrowly the types of problem that should be handled,it should not be necessary to make the futile attempt to resolve the intellectual problem of how many types of relationship are significant. That the attempt would be futile on the part of any one group is shown by Eric de Grolier's excellent chapters on the expression of relationships in various systems. (Eric de Grolier. A Study of General Categories applicable to Classification and Coding in Documentation. Paris, UNESCO, 1963.) He concludes in his UNESCO/FID supported review, that it proved impossible to produce a systematization that was "sufficiently satisfactory to warrant even preliminary publication." Prior to any classification of relationships between problems however, the mere existence of a relationship needs to be noted. The ambitions of this project are at this stage merely to note the existence of relationships. These relationships will be represented by cross-references between the problem entries. For convenience, and without suggesting any form of definitive or theoretically founded classification, an attempt will be made to group these cross-references under five headings (see Annex E):
This approach is not expected to result at this stage in a consistent classification or neat hierarchies of problems. Relationships will be indicated when the literature on a particular problem Indicates the relationship. The only concession to consistency will be to ensure that if evidence exists for problem A being related to problem B, then the relationship B to A will also be registered, whether evidence for this is available in connection with problem B or not. A computer system to handle many varieties of relationship required in terms of the perspectives of groups with different models has been described elsewhere in connection with models of relationship between concepts. (Anthony. Judge. Relationships between Elements of Knowledge. Social Science Research Institute, University of Hawaii, 1972, (150 p.), (Committee on Conceptual and Terminological Analysis, Working Paper No. 3).) Objective: a more adequate approach to interrelated problemsThis protect constitutes the first of a series of steps which might be envisaged in a strategy to achieve more powerful control of the problem environment and greater coordination of response to it. The steps are outlined in Annex F. These more sophisticated possibilities are in some measure dependent upon the facility with which information may be flexibly handled and displayed for ease of comprehension. The future use of computer graphics techniques in the connection is discussed in Annex G. One use of the data generated by this project would be to test out and demonstrate the credibility of such techniques. ***************************************** McHale Summary of Advantages
Estimated CostsTravel (to USA - 4 weeks) $ 1,500 Travel (Europe) $ 600 Purchase of books, documents, journal back issues (o be cut up to avoid note-taking, extra typing or xeroxing and speed up creation of files on each problem.) $ 500 Photocopying $ 500 Secretary (9 man months) $ 3,600 Research Assistant (12 man months) S 4,800 Editor/Compiler (12 man months) $10,800 Postage, questionnaires, automatic letters $ 500 Cost of publication would be met by the Union of International Associations. ConclusionThis project is an attempt to break out of the setting constituted by responses to attempts at change which are governed by Stafford Beer's adaptation of LeChateller's Principle to social systems: "Reformers, critics of Institutions, consultants, in innovation, people in short who 'want to get something done', often fall to see this point. They cannot understand why their strictures, advice or demands do result in effective change. They expect either to achieve a measure of success in their own terms or to be flung off the premises. But an ultrastable system (like a social institution)... has no need to react in either of these ways. It specializes in equilibrial readjustment, which Is to the observer a secret form of change requiring no actual alteration in the macro-systemic characteristics that he is trying to do something about. "( Stafford Beer. The cybernetic cytoblast - management itself. Chairman's Address to the International Cybernetics Congress, September 1969.) Many well-meant attacks on world problems are met,if "successful", by social systemic responses which merely cause the pattern of criticality within the network of problems to be slightly modified - a problem is "solved" but new sets of problems are forced into criticality as second or third order side-effects. In this environment, action against world problems must be based on a strategy against the network of problems - great and, apparently, small. A more outgoing and powerful means of pinpointing problems prior to criticality is needed. The attitude required in detecting emerging world social system problems is similar to that recommended for NASA in the following: "The program of a large organization, whether intended or not.. .affects a wide sector of the organization's environment, one much wider than the organization may understand to be its surrounds... Organizations that wish to deal responsibly with their social surrounds must be capable of eliciting and evaluating responses from those who realize they are affected but who are ordinarily silent, and from those who are affected but may not realize it..." (R.A. Rosenthal and R.S. Weiss. Problems of organizational feedback processes. In: R.A. Bauer (Cd.). Social Indicatators Cambridge, MIT Press, 1966.) This project is a step towards mapping and further objectifying the problem network, and facilitating the sort of "configurative" counter-offensive envisaged by Harold Lasswell (From fragmentation to configuration. Policy Sciences, 2, 1971, p. 439-446.). Hopefully this will reduce the necessity for decisions to be made at levels where the possibility of individual participation of those affected is increasingly remote. Democratization and peace depend on relatively equal access, by territorial and pluralistic groups, to knowledge about the problems faced. In a learning society faced with crises, the "look-out" function of these groups should also be remembered. The ultimate concern of this project may perhaps best be summarized as that of improving the current societal attitude towards problems - whereby different groups, because of the limited information to which each is exposed, become heated advocates or opponents of particular problems as the key problem. The different enthusiasms, although sincere, create chaotic competition, and even conflict, for attention and resources. Government, agency and media control of information aggravates this situation since it provides an increasingly potent basis for "adjusting" the outside world so that it is compatible with the survival and growth aims of the agency. The agency is at the same time internally adjusted so that it responds best to what it perceives as pertinent to it in the evolving complex environment. Those with any control over information are able to put forth interpretations of "social reality", the criticality of a given problem, programs to deal with it, and evaluations of those programs as implemented, based on knowledge either unavailable to those who could challenge the interpretation or unavailable at the time that a challenge might be most effective.(This paragraph based on: D.M. Michael. On coping with complexity; planning and politics. Daedalus, Fall 1968, p. 1179-1185.) However, as soon as a challenge is made sufficient and the problem proved publicly to be non-critical or dependent upon some other problem, the problem's value as a "territory", with respect to which the advocating bodies can distinguish themselves, Is lost. New "territories" are quickly sought in another part of the problem network to which resources can be "justifiably" allocated, and the cycle re-commences — to the confusion of on-lookers. There are always "fresh" problems onto which agencies can quickly move to escape the recognition of the part their narrow focus plays in maintaining this process. Unless the problem network can be mapped so that the moves of each advocating group can be tracked in relation to one another, then no understanding of the adequacy or inadequacy of the attack by society's organizational resources on the whole problem complex will emerge. Perhaps the tableau that best summarizes the current situation is that of tribes of howler monkeys (organizations) in a forest of inter-weaving branches (the problem network) which they fragment into noisily and ardently defended family territories which shift unpredictably according to the changing fortunes and humours of each family. Current problem data projects focus on a few groups of "trees" according to the current fashion. A "forest-oriented" data collection is required. Part II: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT[to be included ****] ANNEX A: Background of ProjectThe project emerged as a powerful means of attacking a vicious circle constituted by:
The idea for the project arose during the course of work on the design of a computer data bank to handle information on international organizations to supply a more integrated and action oriented overview of the world system. Each organization is concerned with a number of "subject" areas which in some cases take the form of specific "problem" areas. There is much overlap and cross-linking between problems which prevented any simplistic classification of organizations and demanded a network-oriented databank. A design for this was developed. (International Computers Limited. System Definition for for Type Setting Yearbook of International Organization. London, ICL Program Specifiation for Type SettingYearbook of International Organization. London, ICL, 1971, 2 vol., var. pag. .) Further investigation with a view to data collection showed that the concept of a "world problem" was Ill-defined, despite its frequent use in documents and the media. |