March 1976
Futures Perspectives of International Organizations
Proposed research questions for a UNESCO study
-- / --
.Background paper for a UNESCO / UNITAR expert meeting on the role of international organizations in the contemporary world (Geneva, 15-19 March, 1976)
Introduction
The purpose of this paper is to propose "draft outline" of Part IV of the proposed Unesco Study under the title future perspectives of international organizations. Given the competence and interest of the author, this paper will focus primarily on the nongovernmental actors and international organizations in general but not on questions specific to intergovernmental organizations. These will presumably be a prime concern of others contributing to this meeting.
The sections of this outline are:
- Changing meaning of international organization
- Relationships and networks
- Quantitative description of future evolution of international organization
- Changing nature of relationships between organizations
- Changing nature of relationships between organizations and nation-states.
- Scenarios for the future of the international system
- Future significance for the alleviation of world problems
- Relevance of international bodies to developing countries
- Maximization of organization of organizational potential
- Future policies of mobilizing resources in support of programme action
- Future possibilities for facilitating achievement of full organizational potential
- Trends in organizational operations
- Restrictions on organizational operations.
A. Changing meaning of international organization
It is important to consider how "organization" in general and "international organization" (or variations on this term) in particular are becoming riches in meaning and diversity of structures denoted and the possibilities for new structures to which this given rise. The following dimensions may be considered:
1. Organizations and their functional substitutes
- What range of meanings is usefully attached to "organization" which is of significance to the operation of the international system?
- What range of meanings are natural to or emerging from and developing country cultures ?
- To what extent do other kinds of organization function increasingly as substitutes for a conventional international body, these obviating the necessity for its creation ? For example: a regular conference series without a continuing committee, a multilateral treaty without a secretariat, an invisible college, an information system, a journal readership, etc.
- What new kinds of organization might emerge in the light of demands for greater flexibility, speed of response, and intersectoral coordination ?
2. International, etc. as opposed to national.
- What range of meanings may increasingly be given to "international" arc its relation to "national" ?
- To what extent is the importance of some kinds of "international" body increasing and how is this associated with such terms as "multinational", and "transnational" ?
- Will the denotation of bodies acting world-wide by a term containing "... national" continue to be so meaningful ?
3. Nongovernmental as opposed to governmental
- What range of meanings can be distinguished for bodies on the governmental/nongovernmental dimension ?
- To what extent are new kinds of government/nongovernmental mixes emerging, particularly in non-western societies ?
4. Nonprofit as opposed to profit-making
- What range of meanings can be distinguished for bodies on the profit/nonprofit dimension ?
- To what extent are new kinds of profit/nonprofit mixes emerging, particularly in non-western societies ?
5. Functional range
- What range of activities for international bodies can be distinguished? For example: technical, regulation, standardization, legislation, mobilization of public opinion, exchange of information
- To what extent, for a given problem areas are these performed within the framework of one organization or by different bodies
- How is the bias changing, and how are the results knitted together?
6. Salience
- To what extent are semi-secret organizations and organizational subsititutes of increasing importance? For example: intelligence networks, international crime rings, international cartels, invisible colleges and secret societies.
7. Duration
- To what extent is the importance of temporary international bodies increasing ? For example: special committees, temporary coalitions, etc.
8.Membership
- To what extent will the importance of mass membership organizations increase and how will they blend into the range of less formal international movements?.
B. Relationships and networks
- What kinds of relationships exist , are emerging, or may emerge between organizations?
- What range of meanings can increasingly be attached to the concept of a network of relationships, or an organizational network, of significance to the international system ?
- How are networks of relationships changing ans evolving? What new characteristics of networks are emerging ?
- How does the existence of organizational networks increasingly binder or facilitate new activity ? how will the operations networks (network dynamics) be hindered or facilitated by the establishment of organizational systems which take no account of their existence?
- What new concepts are likely to emerge to describe the structure. functioning end evolution of networks as networks ?
C. Quantitative description of future evolution of international organization
Taking into account the considerations of the previous sections:
- How many organizations of what types may be expected to exist in different periods over the next 100 years ?
- In order to give meaning to the above figures, how many equivalent bodies of what types are expected to exist at the national and subnational levels in different countries ?
- How will the geographical spread of membership in universal bodies, and creation of regional bodies, change?
- To what extent will the degree of interrelationship between organizations increase?
- How will the existence of non-formal and non formal organizational
D. Changing nature of relationships between organizations
Consideration can usefully be given to the changing nature of relationships between:
- UN/IGO and UN/IGO: namely the problems of communication and coordination between UN Specialized Agencies
- IGO and IGO: namely the problems of commincation between "regional" and "universal" bodies.
- NGO and NGO: namely the problems of communication and liaison between NGOs of different types.
- Multinational and multinational: namely the problems arising from communication and coordination between multinationals
- IGO and multinational: the expected evolution of the ECOSOC initiative
- IGO and NGO : the expected evolution of the consultative relationship.
- NGO and multinational: the possible relations between multinationals and trade unions, professional societies, trade associations, etc.
E. Changing nature of relationships between organizations and nation-states
Consideration should be given to the evolution of relationships of the following type:
- With country of Secretariat/Regional Office: namely problems of legal status of the organization, its personnel, import/export of goods associated with the operations of the organization, of foreign visitors to the Secretariat.
- With country of international meeting
- With country where there is (field-level) programme activity
- With country where there are members: including the problems of the members in relating to a distant organization.
F. Scenarios for the development of the system of international organizations
The following table lists a series of 16 scenarios some of which might be considered singly or in groups.
- "+" Indicates much more of the particular kind of organization, where as
- "-" Indicates much less
For each of the 16 cases, it may be useful to distinguish the subcase of low entropy and high entropy systems, making 32 possibilities in all
| Scenarios | ||||||||||||
|
|
Low variety Relatively centralized |
High variety Relatively centralized |
IGO |
Multinational corporation |
NGO |
Informal |
||||||
|
1 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||||||
|
2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
- |
||||||
|
3 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
+ |
+ |
- |
+ |
||||||
|
4 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
+ |
+ |
- |
- |
||||||
|
5 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||||||
|
6 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
+ |
- |
+ |
- |
||||||
|
7 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
+ |
- |
- |
+ |
||||||
|
8 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
+ |
- |
- |
- |
||||||
|
9 |
9.1 |
9.2 |
+ |
+ |
+ |
+ |
||||||
|
10 |
10.1 |
10.2 |
- |
+ |
+ |
- |
||||||
|
11 |
11.1 |
11.2 |
- |
+ |
- |
+ |
||||||
|
12 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
- |
+ |
- |
- |
||||||
|
13 |
13.1 |
13.2 |
- |
- |
+ |
+ |
||||||
|
14 |
14.1 |
14.2 |
- |
- |
+ |
- |
||||||
|
15 |
15.1 |
15.2 |
- |
- |
- |
+ |
||||||
|
16 |
16.1 |
16.2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||||||
G. Future significance for the alleviation of world problems
It is important to consider whether the number and variety of organizations and the manner in which they function together (whether coordinated on by some process of mutual information), be will lead to improved containment of the equivalent network of world problems
- To what extent will then be en increasing number of problem which no organization has an operational programme, or at least a mandate to recognize the problem ?
- To what extent will the dynamics of the network of problems such that, despite the exstence of appropriate organizational networks, the problems will be uncontainable ?
- To what extent will there be a de-emphasis on alleviating action trough international bodies in favour of decentralized activity through national or even subnational bodies ?
H. Relevance of international bodies to developing countries
Given that
(1) the majority of international bodies have their headquarters in developed countries.
(2) even when developing countries create their own regional bodies, the rate of creation of such bodies is less the rate of creation of equivalent bodies in developed countries.
- To what extent will the majority of international bodies be decreasing relevant to developing countries and their problems?
- To what extent will the need to create all varieties of regional bodies in developing countries (and the national and subnational organizational base from which to do so), come to be recognized as an integral problem of economic end social development?
- To what extent will a distinct group of NGOs emerge for the developing countries, just as a distinct group emerged for the socialist countries in both cases with an important indirect relationship with the government?
- To what extent are there fundamental, cultural and semantic problems in developing countries of defining and distinguishing organizations similar to those which have emerged from the developed world, and particularly the western countries ? What other kinds of body may be expected to emerge from within the cultures in question and to whatnew kinds of organization might they give rise internationally?
I. Maximization of organization potential
There already is a vast network of organizations and groups in society extending from the community level to the international level. Only little is known about this network as a network, or of the number of bodies in it (possibly of the order of 10-100 million). It is not known what might be accomplished if the potential of this network those touched by it were brought to bear on world problems. Nothing is known about its synergistic potential.
To the extent that maximization the ability of individuals, and existing organizational units (of whatever kind) to:
(1) link together into larger organizational units (2) channel resources to focal points from which they may be directed to the alleviation of problems. (3) restructure existing organizational complexes in response problem configurations and priorities.
is closely related to the ability of society to survive the emerging complex of problems:
- To what degree will the organizational potential of society be utilize and what would be the overflow effect, from such national and subnational achievement, onto the international level?
- How could the organizational potential of a society or culture be measured and what are the restrictions on maximum quantity and on maximum contract coordination?
J. Future policies of mobilizing resources in support of programme action
Given the organizational potentialand the increasing criticality of world problems
- To what extent may existing policies of mobilizing public opinion and organizational support be expected to succeed in the future?
- To what extent are individuals and organizations increasingly switching their focus to national and subnational problems, despite the increased criticality of some problems in other countries and the lack of resource there?
- How could networks of organizations be mobilized from central points which deny the existence of the network as a network?
K. Future possibilities for facilitating achievement of full organizational potential
Given the recognized weakness of existing approaches to mobilizing individuals and organizations in support of action to alleviate world problems(c.f. UN Secretary General's 1973 report on the matter)
- To what extent will it be possible to facilitate organizational creation, development, action and restructuring as a means of providing a non-directive, , non-exhortative stimulus to increased achievement of full organizational potential (whether at the international level or through overflow effects from national and subnational activity?)
- What possibilities exist for facilitating such increased action and what may be the restrictions on their use ? For example: subsidized telephone and postal communications, tax relief (to organizations, staff, and funds suppliers), subsidized travel costs, subsidized office space, office management and administrative assistance alleviation of staff and operational legal restraints, assisted use of computers (for mailing and administration), etc.
L. Trends in organizational operations
Review of emerging trends in the way organizations operate with the emerge of mere sophisticated supportive technology, greater mobility, and a desire for more rapid change.
M. Restrictions on organizational operations
Review of major pressures which may very significantly diminish the ability of the majority of organizational systems to function to effectively.
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